Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.200540 28.541481 33.864969 41.024356 50.649403 6.353889e+01 82.865901
2025-02-02 19.982538 25.294751 32.585871 43.843009 61.895344 9.219017e+01 154.242341
2025-02-09 16.410335 21.533349 28.992408 41.433471 63.639199 1.070590e+02 221.148620
2025-02-16 14.909976 20.241654 28.460618 43.284311 72.983454 1.426030e+02 402.470834
2025-02-23 13.462099 18.721498 27.169880 43.329163 78.825637 1.763833e+02 708.719505
2025-03-02 12.287809 17.423250 25.954960 43.102901 83.973373 2.150057e+02 1356.753926
2025-03-09 11.461723 16.556295 25.300719 43.766826 91.697591 2.750695e+02 3678.252951
2025-03-16 10.421474 15.204355 23.560255 41.696209 91.140036 3.023773e+02 8278.549314
2025-03-23 9.780663 14.456409 22.817721 41.645602 96.596396 3.736244e+02 93563.297802
2025-03-30 8.977565 13.349510 21.252855 39.361993 93.998185 3.943420e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 8.216376 12.256555 19.602289 36.591010 88.776953 3.899797e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 7.609234 11.393448 18.320665 34.519313 85.364241 3.970793e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 7.824298 12.040685 20.156590 40.796763 117.847051 9.593228e+02 NaN
2025-04-27 7.669432 11.996743 20.583850 43.610538 140.417090 1.957688e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 7.137384 11.196514 19.294902 41.218951 135.463051 2.134739e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 6.958260 11.053356 19.419647 43.055604 155.696001 4.997633e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 6.674589 10.683530 18.993162 43.100107 165.986092 1.044470e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 6.399677 10.309844 18.515651 42.875598 174.803701 2.716302e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 6.199101 10.068136 18.315746 43.534367 191.630206 4.978603e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 5.864291 9.536030 17.381636 41.479707 184.805144 1.666546e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 5.662932 9.261319 17.035869 41.429486 195.658196 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.359906 8.763878 16.115341 39.163041 184.542515 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.048030 8.236026 15.092044 36.412267 167.760444 NaN NaN